Does Oscar care about who wins the presidency?
As the country recovers from the emotional roller coaster of the 2024 presidential election, Hollywood will address this tense political atmosphere with events throughout awards season. And that could determine which movies the Oscars recognize. After all, the Academy Awards have a long history of reflecting and commenting on the country’s political zeitgeist, sometimes defiantly, sometimes conciliatory.
In 2016, the Academy’s choice of “Moonlight” over “La La Land,” which had been seen as a front-runner, was a symbolic rejection of the divisive rhetoric that sealed Donald Trump’s victory. It was widely accepted as such. “Moonlight,” a poignant exploration of young black male sexuality, stood in stark contrast to President Trump’s controversial policies. His “Muslim ban” would be countered by two other honors awarded at that year’s ceremony. One is Mahershala Ali’s historic victory as the first Muslim to take home a supporting actor Oscar, and the other is Iran’s The Salesman, which became an international feature film.
Fast forward to the present. Trump will return to the Oval Office just in time for Oscar voting. That means voters have a chance to voice, or at least set the tone, the art world’s reaction to his political resurgence. How do Hollywood creators respond to a historical moment defined by a clash of ideals?
read: Check all Academy Award predictions for all 23 categories on one page. variety Award circuit: oscar.
Emilia Perez, Carla Sofia Gascón (left), 2024
©Netflix/Courtesy of Everett Collection
Some of the nominees could also connect with a broad swath of liberal Oscar voters. Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Perez,” starring transgender actor Carla Sofia Gascón, could send a resounding message of inclusivity given the cultural debate surrounding transgender rights. Josh Greenbaum’s Netflix documentary “Will & Harper,” which centers on a road trip Will Ferrell and Harper Steele take after completing their gender transition, might be similarly received.
Featuring powerful performances from Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked” celebrates inclusivity with themes of empathy and individuality. The film’s enthusiastic reception suggests it could become a rallying point for liberal audiences and critics, especially as it’s poised to reach $100 million in its first release. .
And it’s worth noting that considering the initial official reviews for “Wicked” were poor and it debuted at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, the big-budget musical-turned-stage production has plenty to offer. I believe that we can achieve great results. Could this race turn into a musical showdown? Not so fast.
Directed by Brady Corbet, The Brutalist is a historical drama that tackles anti-Semitism and artistic resilience, adding to the conversation by taking on themes relevant to ongoing geopolitical issues. The drama’s story may appeal to voters looking for a story of perseverance. “Anora” is a film about the romance between a sex worker and the son of a Russian oligarch, and features an impressive performance by Mikey Madison. The comedy-thriller could garner support from voters who advocate more female-centered stories.
Of course, Oscar voters are no exception to America’s political divide. Some people may sympathize with his hateful worldview. Historical precedent suggests that the Oscars can either reflect a nation’s collective anxiety in the midst of a divisive election or provide an escape.
In 2000, after George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore in the election, the Academy awarded “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and “Traffic” over more complex and introspective films. The Best Picture award was given to “Gladiator”. Some argued that Hollywood chose a straightforward story of revenge and triumph in an effort to find middle ground in polarized times.
What if Ridley Scott’s epic sequel experienced a similar result, perhaps reflecting the populist ethos that made Top Gun: Maverick a sensation? It may resonate as a return to a more universally accepted era.
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, which just opened to AMPAS and industry voters on Wednesday night, also explores the individualism that Dylan’s music represented to many Americans. It may delve into the theme and appeal to those nostalgic for a bygone era. .
This trend is not new. In 1980, when President Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent President Jimmy Carter, the emotional family drama “Ordinary People” won over contenders such as “Raging Bull” and “The Elephant Man.” Similarly, in 1984, President Reagan’s reelection coincided with the victory of the period biopic Amadeus, which attracted widespread public interest even as the Cold War smoldered.
Even world events outside of elections can change the outcome of the Oscars. Just as “CODA” won just after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, or in 1941, in the shadow of the Pearl Harbor tragedy, the Academy chose John Ford’s “My Valley Is Greener” over Orson Welles’ “Citizen Kane.” As with the choices that were made, events that occur off-screen often influence Hollywood’s choices. With the current conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, the Oscars may be a survival or There is a possibility that the story will lean toward escapism.
Whichever films emerge as winners, they will capture a snapshot of America’s divisions, aspirations, fears, and hopes in 2025. For all its glitz, the Oscars remain a cultural mirror, reflecting a world that continues to grapple with its ever-changing identity.
Below are this week’s Oscar predictions (in alphabetical order) for all 23 categories.
From “Wicked”
everett collection
Best work award
“Anora”
“Blitz”
“Brutalist”
“Completely unknown”
“conclave”
“Dune: Part 2”
“Emilia Perez”
“Gladiator II”
“Next room”
“evil”
director
Jacques Audiard “Emilia Perez”
Sean Baker “Anora”
Edward Berger “Conclave”
Jon M. Chu “Wicked”
Ridley Scott “Gladiator II”
actor
Adrien Brody “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet “The Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes “Conclave”
Paul Mescal “Gladiator II”
actress
Cynthia Erivo “Wicked”
Carla Sofia Gascón “Emilia Perez”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste “Hard Truth”
Angelina Jolie “Maria”
Mikey Madison “Anora”
supporting actor
Yura Borisov “Anora”
Kieran Culkin “A Real Pain”
Clarence Maclin “Sing Sing”
Guy Pearce “The Brutalist”
Denzel Washington “Gladiator II”
supporting actress
Monica Barbaro “The Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande “Wicked”
Saoirse Ronan “Blitz”
Isabella Rossellini “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña “Emilia Perez”
original script
“Anora”
“Brutalist”
“Hard truth”
“Real pain”
“September 5th”
adapted screenplay
“conclave”
“Emilia Perez”
“Next room”
“Sing Sing”
“evil”
Animation feature
“flow”
“Inside Head 2”
“Snail Memoirs”
“Wallace and Gromit: The Deadliest Bird of Revenge”
“Wild Robot”
production design
“Completely unknown”
“Dune: Part 2”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“evil”
Cinematography
“Brutalist”
“conclave”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”
“evil”
costume design
“Blitz”
“Completely unknown”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“evil”
movie editing
“Anora”
“Brutalist”
“Dune: Part 2”
“Emilia Perez”
“evil”
makeup and hair styling
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“Another man”
“Dune: Part 2”
“material”
“evil”
sound
“Blitz”
“Completely unknown”
“Dune: Part 2”
“Gladiator II”
“evil”
visual effects
“Dune: Part 2”
“Gladiator II”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Mufasa: The Lion King”
“evil”
original score
“Brutalist”
“conclave”
“Next room”
“Saturday Night”
“Wild Robot”
original song
This is the “Winter Coat” product from “Blitz”.
“El Mal” from “Emilia Perez”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Kiss the Sky” from “Wild Robot”
“Harper and Will Go West” from “Will & Harper”
Documentary feature
“Dahomey”
“Daughters”
“There is no other land.”
“sugar cane”
“Will & Harper”
International feature
Senegal’s “Dahomey”
Emilia Perez from France
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil
Irish “knee cap”
Germany’s “Sacred Fig Seed”
short animation
“It’s almost Christmas story”
“Back to normal”
“hang on”
“Please remember us”
“Silent Panorama”
short documentary
“I’m ready, Director.”
“Julia’s Stepping Stones”
“Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World”
“Bike Merry”
“Swimming lessons”
short live action
“Pigeon Cottage”
“The man who couldn’t keep quiet”
“Homeland”
“It’s ripe!”
“The room was taken away.”
“Evil” — 12
“Emilia Perez” — 10
“Gladiator II” — 8
“Brutalist” and “Conclave” — 7
“Anora,” “Blitz,” “Dune: Part 2” — 6
